Russia’s military efforts in the counter-terrorism campaign in Syria has produced significant progress on the battleground, and at the same time revived the political solution mechanism, largely neglected for the last two years, of the Syrian crisis.
As of now, 19 nations and international organizations are attending the Vienna peace talks, but it is apparent that differences of understanding exist as to the essence and solution of the crisis as well as the ultimate goal to be achieved, as seen by the varying positions parties such as the United States, Russia, Europe and other major powers and regions have taken. Whether the talks will conclude in 6 months’ time still remains to be seen.
The first hurdle in reaching a political solution is deciding the future of President al-Assad. The riots that broke out in Syria in March 2011 were, in fact, an attempt by the U.S., Europe, and certain Middle Eastern countries to start a color revolution and topple the regime in Syria. Had China and Russia not jointly used their veto power four times in a row in the UN Security Council, Syria would have shared the same fate as Libya.
Though the U.S., Europe, and several hardliners in the Middle East seem to be less adamant about it at the moment, getting Assad to leave is still high on their list of priorities. As the peace talks proceed, and detailed arrangements as to which group is to represent the Syrian government during the transitional period have to be made, this will be a very real obstacle.
The second hurdle concerns the legitimacy of the Syrian opposition. The Syrian government does not believe that the so-called “moderate opposition forces” armed by the U.S. can represent the people of Syria in any way. However, how the Syrian opposition is dealt with now will have a bearing on the power structure of the future interim government. If the opposition individuals and groups proposed by the U.S. are not accepted by the current regime in Syria, how can the transitional period even start?
The third hurdle is coordinating a ceasefire with counter-terrorism efforts. A ceasefire has already been proposed at the talks in Vienna. However, both Russia and the U.S. are still taking military action against the IS in Syria. While Russia is cooperating with the Syrian government, the U.S. has stubbornly refused to do so. There has yet to be a “joint force of international counter-terrorism efforts” as described by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Although an agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Russia to prevent military aircraft collisions, the 50 Special Forces soldiers deployed by the U.S. for action on the ground have no collaboration with Russia or the Syrian regime. The U.S. claims that Russia has been attacking Syrian opposition forces instead of extremist groups, but has yet to come up with any evidence.
There are many other points of contention at the talks. In particular, there are voices against measures the U.S. has taken ever since the beginning of the new century to start wars and plan color revolutions in other nation. The actions of the U.S., aimed at bringing down individual rulers or socio-political structures, are solely based on its own preferences, never taking into account the security, stability and the interest of the people of the countries involved. If the US does not take on a different mentality, it could be difficult to reach the expected goals during the Vienna peace talks.
Of course, a political solution to the Syrian crisis must go hand in hand with reforms in the Syrian government. The 4-year civil conflict in the country has left 250 thousand dead, 4 million refugees abroad, and tens of millions internally displaced. This is in effect the worst humanitarian disaster since WWII. At the moment, in addition to amending the Constitution and holding an election during the transitional period, the Syrian government should also utilize as much resources as possible, both domestic and international, to resettle the displaced, and improve relations between the major ethnic groups—the Sunnis, Christians, and Kurds—in the country. These ethnic groups’ participation in politics must be increased; an understanding that everyone must contribute to ending the crisis has to be reached. Only when the Syrian government bases its governance on putting people’s welfare first, can it effectively collaborate with the political solution process.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, over the years China has played a unique role in the resolution of the Darfur issue in Sudan, and in promoting progress in the Iranian nuclear issue negotiations, as well in other issues of major concern in the Middle East, utilizing its good relations with the countries involved. Because of this, immediately after Russia sent its forces to Syria to attack the IS, Bouthania Shaaban, Political and Media Adviser to the President of Syria, came to China.
In October, during the China-U.S., China-UK, and China-Germany summits, the Syria issue was brought up each time. It is apparent that countries in the affected region and the international community places China’s diplomacy in high regard and have great expectations for it.
China has used its veto power four times in the UN Security Council during the deliberations of the Syrian crisis, an unprecedented move. In addition, China has provided multiple rounds of humanitarian assistance. Last month, during a meeting with the author of this article, Ms. Shaaban admitted that if it weren’t for China and Russia, Syria would have become another Libya. Concerning the Syrian crisis, Foreign Minister Wang Yi has made the following three proposals: there has to be a joint force of international counter-terrorism efforts; the future of the crisis must return to the path of political resolution; the most urgent demand right now is providing humanitarian aid. Just last month, the Chinese government announced that it will provide to Syria and other affected countries 10 million yuan’s worth of humanitarian aid. These timely actions have been warmly received and appreciated by Syria and other nations in the Middle East.
In fact, while participating in the resolution of key Middle Eastern issues, China, through the combination of major power and multilateral diplomacy, and the combination of official and public diplomacy, always insists on encouraging the relevant sides to hold negotiations and achieve reconciliation. Experience has proven this method effective.
China adheres firmly to the principle of not interfering with another nation’s internal affairs. Instead of employing threats or means of oppression as the U.S. and Western countries do, China develops long-term friendships with the countries involved in such issues, becoming their trusty friend and partner, and can offer them frank advice and opinions. This is more effective, and more palatable for them. The Peace Talks in Vienna is a mechanism for dialogue and negotiation between major countries and regions, and also an important platform for China to act as a mediator.
China’s also plays an indispensable role in maintaining contact with the Syrian government. After the crisis broke out, China sent out Special Envoys to meet with the Syrian government and opposition right away, and later invited members of the opposition to visit China multiple times. As the political resolution process proceeds, China’s foreign affairs agencies will deepen contact with the Syrian government and opposition, as well as consider offering further humanitarian assistance.
I believe that Syria will be open to suggestions such as furthering diplomatic efforts, working towards returning the Arab League as early as possible, attempting to set up resettlement areas (and notifying the region and the international community of their locations), allowing the displaced to live in stability, and stemming the flow of refugees at the source. It can well be said that China’s unique Middle East policy is receiving more recognition and attention from countries in the affected region and the international community.
The author is a distinguished professor of Middle Eastern studies and the Honorary Director of the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai international Studies University (SISU).
Source: Global Times
