Egyptian Field Marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the main advocate for the country's political reforms and the man likely to be the real helmsman for the foreseeable future, has announced he will step down from his position as head of Egypt's military in order to run for president. This has raised doubts from across society. Many universities in Egypt have staged anti-Sisi demonstrations and condemned the possibility of his becoming president through a military coup.

For a long time, the Egyptian military has intervened in politics, and the armed forces have played a prominent role in the country's political life. Since 1952, Egyptian leaders from Gamal Abdel Nasser to Anwar el-Sadat to Hosni Mubarak have all had a military background and established an authoritarian government to develop economy and maintain social stability.

The military has an ingrained influence in all aspects of life such as the judiciary, administration and economy. The military's control over the whole country was displayed during the January 25 revolution in 2011 when the military and the Mubarak regime confronted each other.

Although the military's control over the country was initially broken by Morsi, who does not have a military background, the military's position in Egypt has not been significantly affected. Morsi was the first elected president, but he put his power above the law and intensified the conflict between secularists and Islamists.

Meanwhile, the Muslim Brotherhood, which has a history of 80 years, lacked experience of ruling, and Morsi's rule inevitably ended in failure.

No matter whether Morsi's rule was stabilizing society or improving people's livelihoods, it failed to meet public expectations.

Although the military's ouster of Morsi was illegitimate, it represented public opinion to some extent. That the military could remove all of Morsi's power in a fast and ruthless manner shows the military has a profound political base and public support in Egypt.

In December, the military-led interim government labeled the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, reflecting the government's tough stance toward what it labels as violence and terrorism.

The new draft constitution passed in January, despite confirming Islam as the national religion, forbids any political party with a religious background to be formed, which weakens the role of Islamists in the country's political affairs and shows Sisi's determination to crack down on religious forces.

This conflict between the military and Islamic political parties continues, reflecting the fierce competition between secularization and Islamization in the Middle East.

Sisi's run for president and the resistance he has encountered represent such competition. If Sisi wins the elections, he will undoubtedly carry on his crackdown on Islamic forces.

Nonetheless, even if power returns to the military, Egypt has changed fundamentally since the upheavals in the Middle East.

The public's desire for democracy has changed. After the January 25 revolution, people's sense of democracy increased.

But due to the long-term authoritarian system, the country still lacked supporting democratic foundations to aid its construction of a political system.

As the public did not have a clear path to voice their opinions and various social problems had to wait to be solved, all sorts of forces resorted to street protests to express their demands and vent their dissatisfaction.

Frequent street political shows in a populist atmosphere haven't brought the expected democratic and political reforms, but instead spiraled out of control and evolved into violence, thus creating room for religious extremism and terrorism.

After all the street politics in recent years, the Egyptian public has become weary.

Yet they cannot express their opinions within the framework of the constitution, which makes street politics gradually became an abnormal political dynamic. This political dynamic has not only failed to solve social problems, but has also become a means used by different forces to disturb political order and destroy social stability.

The struggle between secular and religious groups will not end soon, while people's livelihoods will be the key issue the new government faces. Whoever rules, be it the military or another force, should settle this problem.

Egypt's future depends on whether all forces can bypass discrepancies, seek rationality, and thus reach political consensus in issues such as promoting the economy and stabilizing society.  

The author is a postdoctoral fellow of Postdoctoral Research Station and an assistant research fellow at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.

Source: Global Times