A Cairo military court sentenced the ousted former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi to death on May 16 over the mass prison break in 2011. Compared with the 20-year prison sentence he was handed on April 21 for abuses of protesters, the court's decision this time has a greater symbolic significance, showing the Egyptian government's determination to wipe out the Muslim Brotherhood, and the lack of hope for conciliation between the two sides. The hangover caused by the Arab Spring will be hard to remove, while the political and social transition will be difficult to carry on.
After the January 25 revolution broke out in 2011, Egypt's former ruling order collapsed. Different forces were entangled in the game for state power, which led to a vicious circle of a deeply torn society and violent confrontations.
Based on the increasing support among the Egyptian public and high cohesion, Morsi, who represented the Muslim Brotherhood and was then chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party, became Egypt's first democratically elected president. Morsi had initially won some favorable reviews from the international community. But with a background of violence, disorder and a seriously divided society, the Muslim Brotherhood hastened to promote policies with strong Islamist features, and Morsi eagerly expanded the power of the presidency in an attempt to control and reform the country rapidly, which led to increasing escalation of dissatisfaction and protests from the public.
Eventually, the turmoil became unmanageable. In July 2013, Egypt's military deposed Morsi, outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, arrested many of its members, and designated it a terrorist organization.
In May 2014, Egypt's former army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was elected as the new president, and later both suppressed and appeased the public, while seeking financial aid from the Gulf states. The country's domestic tensions have been gradually eased. In the meantime, Sisi's administration has kept firmly cracking down on the Muslim Brotherhood to consolidate military power.
Though Sisi's government has garnered quite a few criticisms and is facing a number of problems and challenges, it brings the country a relatively stable environment and new hope. Maybe this is a realistic choice for Egypt. His measures of economic development have gained support from both at home and abroad. Even the US, which used to harshly criticize the Egyptian military, has step by step resumed its previously suspended military aid to the country and continued to regard the country as an important ally. All these provide a chance for the further stability of Egypt.
Yet the future road for Egypt's development will be bumpy. Its problems, including social divisions and economic hardship, will not be easily solved. Therefore, Egypt needs to find a better way of bridging the divergences and aggregating consensus toward reconciliation.
Looking back on the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the country's experience with democracy was filled with contradictions, dislocations and fragmentations. The unrest could not end because of the cycle of violence.
The rights of the ordinary people cannot be guaranteed, let alone economic development or improvement of people's well-being. The relentless turbulence has caused great harm to Egyptian citizens.
Egypt has not only lost its leadership role among the major powers in the Middle East and the Arab world, but also drifted into increasing dependence on their financial support.
The transformation of Egypt has once again proved the disillusionment of the Arab Spring movement, and the fact that Western-style democracy is unable to respond effectively to the challenges of the Middle East. The countries in the area need considerable reflection over the transformation of development. Western-style democracy is not a magic cure, and they need to explore a path that fits their national conditions based on their own traditions as well as realities.
The author is an associated research fellow at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.
Source: Global Times
