On February 16, 2023, Shu Meng, an assistant researcher at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, published an opinion piece in WENHUI Daily, 'Israeli government's far-right winging may intensify Palestinian-Israeli conflict' (see WENHUI Daily,  February 16, 2023, p. 4), which reads as follows.

Israeli government's far-right winging may intensify Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government approved the legalization of nine illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank on February 12 and announced the expansion of existing settlements. The Israeli government plans to build 10,000 new homes in the settlements. In response, the U.S., British, French, German, and Italian foreign ministers issued a joint statement on 14 May, saying they strongly oppose all unilateral actions that only serve to increase tensions between Israel and the Palestinians and undermine efforts to achieve a two-state solution.

The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2334 at the end of 2016, reaffirming that Israeli settlement activity in the occupied Palestinian territories is contrary to international law and urging Israel to cease all settlement activity.

Since the end of January, the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation and conflict has escalated, with clashes and bloodshed in Jerusalem and various parts of the West Bank. The Palestinian side has announced the cessation of security cooperation with Israel, and Israel has announced a series of punitive measures against the Palestinians. Public opinion generally believes that Israel's new initiative to expand Jewish settlements at this time has further stimulated the tense situation. 

Far-right forces have become the most destabilizing factor for the Israeli government

One of the direct causes of the conflict remains the Israeli government's right-wing policies. After Netanyahu's return to power, the new Israeli government, which consists of six right-wing or far-right parties including the Likud, Shas and the Religious Zionist Party, has taken a rather hard line against the Palestinians and has made settlement expansion an important matter in the government's work.

After the five Western foreign ministers issued statements against the Israeli initiative on the 14th, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gevir, head of the far-right Jewish Power Party, stressed that Israel will continue to press ahead with Jewish settlement expansion, This is our mission, our credo. Nine settlements is good, but it's not enough. We want (much) more than that.

Shortly after the formation of the new Israeli government, Ben-Gvir insisted on entering the Temple Mount, a sensitive religious site in Jerusalem's Old City, despite outside opposition, prompting international condemnation. This also proves that Netanyahu does not have enough control over the far-right forces within the ruling coalition, and the new government is extremely vulnerable to being held hostage by the far-right forces.

The frequency of Palestinian-Israeli conflicts has increased in recent years, which is the result of a combination of reasons. On the Israeli side, in response to the fragmentation of the domestic political arena, right-wing parties have been warming up and bringing in extreme right-wing parties, which has led to the development of a right-wing trend in the Israeli government, resulting in a hardening of its policy toward the Palestinians and a number of obvious provocative actions. On the Palestinian side, the two-state solution promoted by the international community is not in sight, while Israel's deepening military occupation of the West Bank, its deepening economic seizure of Palestine, and its continued expansion of settlements have led to growing discontent among the Palestinian people with the status quo.

It is worth noting that the Muslim month of Ramadan will begin in just over a month, during which the Palestinian public will be more sensitive to any Israeli actions in the Jerusalem area. If there are further sensitive incidents in the near future to stimulate the situation, the scale and intensity of the conflict between the two sides will be further increased if it continues into Ramadan.

Netanyahu tries to use external conflict to ease domestic pressure

For a period of time in the future, the Palestinian-Israeli situation will remain in a relatively tense confrontation. On the one hand, the ruling coalition is not solid, and is facing multiple pressures and challenges. The government's judicial reforms to strengthen the government's ability to make judicial appointments and weaken the Supreme Court have triggered massive protests and demonstrations in the country, and some media even fear that it may turn into a national crisis. Under such pressure, Netanyahu's government is likely to divert public attention by clashing with the Palestinians and to ease internal pressure by shifting the crisis outward.

On the other hand, in addition to being geographically fragmented, the Palestinian resistance is relatively fragmented and lacks authoritative leadership structures. Many Palestinian organizations have undergone a shift from being dominated by armed resistance to being dominated by regional governance, and discontented Palestinians see this shift as a betrayal of the cause of liberation and will turn to support the new armed groups. In this context, new armed groups have emerged within Palestine, each under the banner of violent resistance, and have raised their profile by launching attacks against Israel.

At present, most of the groups in Palestine are violent, but their demands are primarily for national liberation and are clearly distinct from other extremist groups in the region. But if Palestinian demands go unanswered by the international community, the extremism of the emerging groups may deepen.

The continued fermentation of these two destabilizing factors will stimulate a spiral escalation of the regional situation. The road to peace between Palestine and Israel is still very difficult.

Source: WENHUI Daily

(The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author or interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institute)