On February 14, 2023, Professor Ding Long of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University gave an interview to Jiefang Daily on Iranian President Leahy's visit to China (see Jiefang Daily, February 14, 2023, page 7), the full text of which is as follows.

Iran Looks East, Focuses More on Itself and the East

In the past few days, China's diplomacy, which opened a new chapter of the Year of the Rabbit, has been in full swing. Following Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen's visit to China, Iranian President Leahy will start a three-day trip to China from Feb. 14. This is Lehi's first visit to China during his term of office, and how to promote the implementation of the comprehensive cooperation plan signed between China and Iran in 2021 will become the main point.

Analysts believe that this visit shows that the Iranian side attaches importance to the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran, highlighting its firm determination to look east. China also hopes that through the Belt and Road initiative and cooperation within the framework of SCO, it will provide more space for Sino-Iranian cooperation and inject new impetus to move forward.

High-level interactions are frequent

The visit is Leahy's first to China since he took office in August 2021. President Xi Jinping will hold talks with him to plan and lead the future development of China-Iran relations and exchange views on regional and international issues of common concern. Premier Li Keqiang and Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhanshu will also meet with Leahy separately.

IRNA reported that Leahy will lead a high-level delegation of political and economic figures this time. In addition to meeting with the Chinese leaders, Leahy's itinerary includes meetings with Chinese and Iranian business leaders and Iranian expatriates in China. Lehi's entourage revealed that the two delegations will sign a series of cooperation documents worth $10 billion to $20 billion in infrastructure, power plants, medical equipment and other fields.

As a warm-up to the visit, Leahy recently published an article Old friends are the best partners for future cooperation in China's central media. In the article, he said he was glad to be invited to visit China at the beginning of the Chinese New Year and the Chinese New Year festival. In his opinion, both China and Iran are ancient civilizations that have been vibrant in human history and have strengthened their ties through the ancient Silk Road. Today, China's One Belt, One Road initiative has brought the destinies of the two countries closer together.

Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, said that although Leahy's visit to China was his first since taking office, in fact, high-level contacts between China and Iran have been keeping pace in recent years. Especially under the leadership of the head of state diplomacy, China-Iran relations have shown a comprehensive development momentum.

Several important interactions include a phone call between President Xi and Leahy in 2021 on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Iran, emphasizing that the two countries' relations have withstood the test of international changes and that their friendship has endured over the years, and calls and meetings between President Xi and Leahy in July and September 2022, confirming the common strategic choice of developing bilateral relations. In December of the same year, Chinese Vice President of the State Council, Mr. Xi, and Mr. Leahy met in Beijing. In December of the same year, Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua met with Leahy in Tehran. In January this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister and expressed the need to implement the head of state's consensus and promote the bilateral relations to go deeper and more practical.

Professor Marandi, vice president of Iran's Tehran University and a renowned scholar who will accompany Leahy to China, believes that Leahy's visit is of historic significance and will not only promote the comprehensive cooperation plan signed between the two countries, but also have far-reaching effects on their relations.

The world is changing very fast and we are moving away from a unipolar world. Iran and China are two very strong and independent countries. China, which is in East Asia, is a global power, and Iran is the most important regional power in West Asia. And this is the time of the rise of Asia ......, Marandi said, I believe Iranians are making the right decision - to look globally and focus more on themselves and the East. China will be the highest priority option for Iran.

Docking long-term cooperation

China looks forward to working with the Iranian side to take this visit as an opportunity to promote greater development of the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership and to play a constructive role in enhancing unity and cooperation among countries in the Middle East and promoting regional security and stability, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on 13 June.

Ding Long believes that under the complicated international situation, both China and Iran have a realistic need to deepen cooperation.

From the Iranian side, the Lehi government is currently facing both domestic and foreign pressure. Internally, the massive protests that began last fall have not subsided, exposing Iran's complex religious and social contradictions, and its economy and livelihood have been in long-term difficulties due to international sanctions. Externally, the future of the Iranian nuclear negotiations is in doubt, with the U.S. and the G-7 stepping up sanctions. This is mainly due to the fact that in the context of the Ukraine crisis, the U.S. and the West believe that Iran and Russia have formed a sort of quasi-alliance and have therefore strengthened their long-arm jurisdiction over Iran, which has undermined the basis of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.

In this context, Iran, under internal and external pressure, has continued its decade-old strategy of 'looking east' to develop relations with China and other countries. Ding Long noted. Politically, China shares Iran's opposition to unilateralism, hegemony and external interference. Economically, China is Iran's top trading partner, largest export destination and second largest source of imports. Seeking pragmatic cooperation with China and easing Western pressure became the main consideration of Leahy's China trip.

From China's side, politically, Iran supports China on issues involving its core interests and major concerns, and firmly defends international fairness and justice. Economically, Iran is vital to China's energy security and is an important pivot point for China's Belt and Road initiative in the Middle East. All this determines that China views China-Iran relations from a strategic and long-term perspective, and attaches importance to coordination and communication with the Iranian side to jointly respond to the changes.

Li Shaoxian, director of the China Institute for Arab States at Ningxia University, said that the overall development of Sino-Iranian relations is good. Even when Iran was under the pressure of unprecedented Western sanctions in 2012-2015, China still solved problems for Iran within the scope of conditions. In recent years, the two sides have been consolidating political mutual trust, steadily advancing pragmatic cooperation in various fields, and maintaining good communication and coordination in international and regional affairs. It is worth mentioning that the signing of the 2021 China-Iran Comprehensive Cooperation Plan is not limited to some specific investments and projects, but also draws a blueprint and sets the course for future long-term cooperation between China and Iran.

That is why this time Lehi led a huge delegation to China with the aim of dovetailing with China for long-term cooperation. Li Shaoxian said the delegation included political elites as well as chamber of commerce presidents and think-tank scholars, which on the one hand shows the broad areas of Sino-Iranian cooperation and on the other hand shows that Iran has a strong will to steadily promote various cooperation. Iran, as an important country in the Middle East, is recognized by the international community for its profound development potential. Cooperation with China is beneficial for Iran to bring these advantages into play.

Focus on implementation

Both scholars said the primary focus of Leahy's visit is how to advance the implementation of the comprehensive Sino-Iranian cooperation plan.

The 25-year plan, which consists of political, strategic and economic components, covers cooperation in oil, mining, industry, transportation and agriculture economically and is about $400 billion in size, according to foreign media.

Dinglong said China and Iran launched the implementation of the plan early last year. But due to multiple factors, the plan was not implemented on a large scale. Therefore, during Leahy's visit, China and Iran are expected to sign a package of cooperation agreements in energy, infrastructure and other fields to promote the implementation of the plan.

Hariri, chairman of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, said, The proposed cooperation agreements cover a number of industrial sectors ...... believes that in the post-epidemic era, the annual trade volume between China and Iran will further increase to $60 billion in the future.

Another point of interest of the visit is how China, which has adopted a balanced foreign policy in the Middle East, can coordinate and communicate well with Iran.

At the global level, the handling of China-Iran relations has to take into account the influence of factors of major power relations such as China, the United States and China and Russia. At the regional level, the development of China-Iran relations is to take into account the balance of relations with Iran and with the Gulf countries. Ding Long said.

One context is that last year Iran showed caution about China developing ties with the Gulf states, reacting to the joint statement in China. But since then, China has released signals to Iran through diplomatic actions that both the GCC countries and Iran are friends of China and that China's development of relations with both sides is not directed at third parties. Ding Long believes that the Iranian side may still make relevant demands on China this time, and observe how China will do a good job of communication and coordination to ensure that Sino-Iranian cooperation and cooperation in the GCC can be smoothly promoted.

Looking ahead to the next phase of China-Iran relations, the two scholars said that both opportunities and challenges are obvious.

The opportunities are that Iran's policy choice of looking east will continue, and the development of relations with China will be given a prominent place. In the words of the Iranian side, developing relations with China is the highest decision for Iran, and the Chinese side also attaches importance to Iran's position in China's foreign policy. Therefore, at the bilateral level, it is expected that China and Iran will build the Belt and Road initiative and promote global development and global security initiatives in the future. At the regional level, Leahy has recently signed an order to implement the law on Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Iran's imminent full membership in the SCO will facilitate China-Iran cooperation within the international and regional multilateral framework and uphold genuine multilateralism.

The challenge is that the U.S. long-arm jurisdiction will still severely hamstring Sino-Iranian cooperation. Since Iran is subject to a full range of energy, financial, technological and military sanctions, it is difficult for Chinese investments and dual-use technologies to land in Iran. In addition, Iran is located in the Middle East, the land of right and wrong, it has opposing interests with Israel and the Arab world, which may interfere with the overall situation of Sino-Iranian cooperation.

Ding Long said that despite the many challenges, China and Iran have a strong willingness to cooperate, and their economies are highly complementary. Under the new situation, the two sides will work together to study how to deepen cooperation, avoid risks and promote pragmatic cooperation between China and Iran to move steadily and far.

Source: Jiefang Daily

(The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author or the interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institute)