On February 10, 2023, Professor Ding Long of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University gave an interview to the Global Times on the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict (see Global Times, February 10, 2023, p. 7), the full text of which is as follows.
U.S. media predicts third Palestinian uprising, a new blow-up point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
A third (Palestinian) intifada? On 7 February, the US magazine Foreign Affairs used this to predict the direction of the Palestinian-Israeli situation. 26 January saw a massive Israeli attack on the Palestinian refugee camp in Jenin, killing 10 Palestinians and injuring more than a dozen others, the deadliest day in the occupied West Bank since Israel stepped up its attacks on Palestinian militant groups early last year, and 2022 became the deadliest day in 16 years of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The deadliest year in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 16 years. According to several media analyses, the escalating situation is due to the emergence of new flashpoints in both countries, including the emergence of a new Palestinian armed resistance group, represented by the Lions' Den, which has vowed to strike back at Israel by force, and the emergence of the most right-wing government in Israel's history, which has taken a more aggressive approach. The most right-wing government in Israel's history has just come to power and has adopted a more aggressive policy towards the Palestinians, adding fuel to the already tense Palestinian-Israeli relations. Many in the media believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may be entering a new and disastrous phase.
They believe in blood, struggle and rifles to bring about change
On 25 October 2022, the streets of the Old City of Nablus in the West Bank are quieter than ever. In recent months, many shops and businesses in the city have closed their doors, and those who are still open look sternly at outsiders with suspicion and caution.
What has caused this change are the many raids by Israeli special forces. They would enter the city of Nablus under cover of night, in disguise, to search for and arrest members of the Palestinian armed resistance group known as The Lions' Den. The group is also one of the targets of a major Israeli raid on the Palestinian refugee camp in Jenin on January 26, 2023.
According to the Middle East Monitor, the BBC and many other media outlets, the Lions' Den grew out of an offshoot of the Palestinian armed resistance group Nablus Brigades, named mainly after the Palestinian resistance fighters known as the Lions of Nablus. Nabulsi, a Palestinian resister known as the Lion of Nablus. The Lion's Den was officially formed after the young man, aged 18 or 19, was assassinated by Israel in August 2022. The organisation made its official debut in Nablus on 2 September 2022 and its members are mainly young men in their early to mid-20s. In its charter of action, the Lions' Den expresses its intention to resist Israel independently of the old Palestinian political factions. The organisation is not aligned with any of the Palestinian political parties.
The Lions' Den believes that when dealing with Israel, the only language the latter understands is the sound of bullets and gunfire. They believe that it is blood, struggle and rifles that will bring about change. Armed with weapons smuggled from Jordan or stolen from IDF bases, these young men attack Israeli soldiers and residents of Jewish settlements. Official statistics released by the Palestinian Information Centre show that members of the Lion's Den have carried out hundreds of armed operations against Israeli forces in the two short months since they were formed. Israeli media said that several Israeli soldiers were killed and 91 others were injured, some seriously, by members of the Lions' Den.
While the Lions' Den has not caused a large number of Israeli soldiers or casualties, and has drawn a severe crackdown from Israel, its influence and appeal has increased dramatically with the death of key members of the group. Unlike established Palestinian groups, the Lions' Den communicates with the general public through social media such as Telegram. In the two months since it launched its official account, the group has attracted more than 230,000 followers on social media, more than any other Palestinian political faction. Several of their online appeals were widely echoed by the Palestinian public, including on 16 October 2022, when Palestinians shouted from rooftops in Nablus, Ramallah, Hebron and Jerusalem to resist the Israeli blockade of the city of Nablus at the time, with voices that rang through the night sky.
The roar of the lion's den is only getting louder
According to Middle Eastern media analysis, the traditional Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad), among others, have become obsolete in the minds of the members of the lions' den, and their affiliated military structures, such as the Kassam Brigades, have lost their vitality and have neither the wisdom nor the growing lack of courage to fight against Israel. The military wing of the Qassam Brigades, for example, has lost its wisdom and increasingly its courage to fight Israel. Australia's Dialogue News believes that the creation of the lion's den is linked to the loss of trust that many Palestinians, especially young people, have in the Palestinian government and other local factions. They believe that the government and the old militant groups are no longer able to stop Israel from expanding Jewish settlements or protect the Palestinian population from Israeli security forces, and are looking for new forces that can bring about change.
In the last year and a half, a number of similar groups have actually emerged in Palestine. In addition to the Nablus Brigade and the Lion's Den, there have been a number of other Palestinian groups, including the Jenin Brigade, the Balata Battalion, the Yabad Battalion and the Nablus Brigade. In addition to the Nablus Brigade and the Lion's Den, new types of groups have emerged in Palestine, including the Jenin Brigade, the Barata Battalion, the Yabad Brigade and the Tubas Brigade. They continue to grow and develop. According to the US magazine Foreign Affairs and other media reports, the Lion's Den has established branches in Jenin, Balata and other places; the Jenin Brigade is not only backed by Gerhard, but also includes young members from Hamas, the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. The Jenin Brigade is not only supported by Gerhard, but also includes young members from organisations such as Hamas, the Palestine National Liberation Movement (PLM) and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Ding Long, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times that one of the characteristics of such groups is that they are small but secretive, and their exact numbers and key members are not known to the outside world.
The new Palestinian armed resistance is often referred to by Israel as a terrorist organisation, but it enjoys a very high level of support in Palestine. A recent survey by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research showed that 72% of Palestinians support the establishment of more such armed groups in the West Bank. Australia's Dialogue news network says that, unlike before, the new Palestinian militant groups are increasingly fragmented and calling on ordinary people to rise up against Israel. Their emergence has led to an increase in lone wolf attacks against Israel. According to the US-based Mondoweiss news network, which follows the Israeli-Palestinian situation, nine days after Israel's raid on 25 October 2022 on the Lions' Den, which resulted in the death of a prominent member of the group, Palestinians have launched at least six attacks against Israeli soldiers, without the attackers belonging to the Lions' Den or other groups. The attackers were not affiliated with the Lions' Den or other Palestinian militant groups. The Middle East Monitor stated bluntly that the Den of Lions is not a transient phenomenon and could change the political situation in the West Bank forever and that the spirit of the intifada is in the air and the roar of the 'Den of Lions' will only grow louder .
Israel's most right-wing government comes to power with a tougher policy towards the Palestinians
To combat Palestinian militant groups of all kinds, Israel launched a massive military operation last spring, codenamed Breaking the Waves, to thwart terrorist activity. This has made 2022 the deadliest year in the Occupied Palestinian Territory in 16 years.
According to the British news network Middle East Eye, at least 220 Palestinians, including 48 children, were killed in Israeli attacks in the occupied Palestinian territories in 2022, including some 167 from the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Meanwhile, Palestinian militant groups killed 30 Israelis, including one child, the deadliest year for Israel since 2008. More than 9,000 Palestinians have been wounded by Israeli forces in the West Bank since the beginning of 2022, according to figures released by the UN.
Some analysts believe that the Palestinian-Israeli situation could deteriorate further in 2023 compared to 2022. Qatar's Al Jazeera reported that in January 2023 alone, 30 Palestinians were killed and another seven Israelis were killed. The US magazine Foreign Affairs believes that a third major Palestinian intifada could break out. The first and second Palestinian uprisings took place in 1987-1991 and 2000-2005 respectively. Many people who lived through the second Palestinian uprising say that the current Palestinian-Israeli situation is similar to that of 20 years ago, when 1,038 Israelis and 3,189 Palestinians were killed, more than 4,000 Palestinian homes were demolished and thousands of Palestinians were arrested. Israel has also bombed Palestinian infrastructure.
Al Jazeera has also said that a full-scale Palestinian intifada is likely to break out, especially if the most right-wing Israeli government comes to power. In the new Israeli government, many far-right figures hold key positions. According to American Foreign Affairs magazine and other media, Ben Gevers, head of the far-right party Jewish Power, is Israel's national security minister and is in charge of the Israeli border police service in the West Bank. The chairman of the religious Zionist party, Smotrych, is responsible for civil affairs in the West Bank, in addition to his role as finance minister. Both encourage violence against Palestinians and support the expansion of Jewish settlements and the occupation of Palestinian territories. Ben Gver also entered the Temple Mount in Jerusalem's Old City on January 3, prompting condemnation from Jordan, the UAE and many other countries.
Speaking to the Global Times, Ding Long said that in order to be accountable to voters, the new Israeli government will certainly hype the Palestinian-Israeli issue and the Iranian threat. On the Palestinian issue, they are expected to intensify the fight against old and new Palestinian militant groups, accelerate the annexation of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and may also take some provocative actions. Dhillon stressed that new Palestinian resistance groups have been formed to commit violence, and that the Israeli government is bound to respond strongly to this, leading both sides into a continuous cycle of violence.
There are also many factors in Palestine that are not conducive to peace. According to an analysis by the American magazine Foreign Affairs, in civil society the last time the Palestinians and Israelis had hope for peace was in the late 1990s. Since then, suspicion of each other has been growing on both sides. One survey shows that support for a peaceful negotiated settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli issue in 2022 has fallen to its lowest point in nearly 20 years. As support for peace negotiations has waned, political figures in both countries have been reluctant to support them and have instead played up the animosity, further reducing popular support for negotiations. At the political level, the Palestinian National Authority's control over localities is weakening and coordination with Israel on security has been weakened. In addition, several Palestinian armed factions are facing a crisis of leadership change, with candidates likely to take a hard line on the Palestinian-Israeli issue in the face of intense competition.
Shortly after the establishment of the Lion's Den, the Palestinian National Authority carried out a raid on the city of Nablus and arrested two members of the group. However, the operation sparked fierce confrontation and widespread backlash, with many Palestinians criticising the PNA's security coordination with Israel. The PNA has since adopted a relatively neutral policy towards members of the Lion's Den, offering them jobs and calling on them to lay down their arms. According to a poll, 87% of Palestinians believe the PNA has no right to arrest members of such organisations.
The former includes Hamas, Jehad, and the newly emerged small-scale armed groups in Jenin and Nablus, while the latter mainly refers to the Palestine Liberation Organization, formed by the Palestinian National Liberation Movement and other political factions, as well as the Palestinian National Authority, which was established on the basis of the PLO and widely recognized by the international community. However, under the influence of factors such as the disparity between Palestinian and Israeli power, the right-wing forces in power in Israel, the internal division in Palestine and the weakening of the mediation efforts of the international community, a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli problem is far away. This has prompted the radicalisation of some Palestinian armed groups and spawned more, and the popular base of the peacemakers has been weakened.
A political price to pay for the US?
The most important thing for you and all those who think our 'anger' has subsided (to understand) is this: a 'volcano' is brewing (erupting). So said a statement issued by the Lion's Den on November 1 last year, the day of the Israeli elections. Some commentators have suggested that Israel's Operation Wave Breaker is not breaking the waves but calling for a tsunami. It has also been argued that Israeli-Palestinian tensions threaten not only the lives of both peoples, but also relations between Israel and the Arab countries. In these countries, many people are not satisfied with the normalisation of relations with Israel.
Ding Long told the Global Times that a new feature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in recent years is that it has erupted and ended quickly, so the two sides may not descend into a large-scale military conflict. He believes that the importance of the Palestinian-Israeli issue has declined significantly both at the regional level in the Middle East and at the international level. This is because, on the one hand, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has become localised; on the other hand, the Palestinian-Israeli issue is gradually being marginalised, especially because the US is paying less attention and devoting fewer resources to the Middle East. In addition, a large number of Arab countries and Israel have warmed relations or even established diplomatic relations, so that the Palestinian-Israeli issue now no longer has the energy to radiate to the major powers and thus affect international security.
But Mike, the previous US assistant secretary of state for Middle East affairs, told Qatari television station Al Jazeera that failure to make constructive progress between Israel and the Palestinians would come at a political cost to the US, a cost that would ultimately outweigh the gains from ignoring the issue or putting it on the back burner of Biden's Middle East list, Whether it's for the Israelis, the Palestinians or the Biden administration, there is nothing to be gained by stalling.
Source: Global Times
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author or interviewees and do not represent the position of this research institution)
