On 3 February 2023, Shu Meng, an assistant researcher at the Middle East Studies Institute, published an opinion article in the PLA Daily, The Road from Chaos to Governance in the Middle East (see PLA Daily, 3 February 2023, page 4), which reads as follows.

The road from chaos to governance in the Middle East is long and difficult

Recently, Iran has been hit by a series of attacks in many parts of the country, including military factories and other important military facilities. These attacks not only reflect the complex diplomatic situation and security pressure facing Iran, but also the complexity and sensitivity of the situation in the Middle East.

The masterminds behind these attacks have yet to be identified, but some analysts suggest that the US and Israel are responsible for the series of attacks. In the light of the US and Israel's stance on Iran, it makes sense that these two countries are suspected. The US, for one, has taken several actions to deter Iran. The attacks were carried out mainly by drones and took place against the backdrop of unsuccessful negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal and Iran's supply of weapons to Russia, with a clear knockout message. In addition, this round of attacks coincides with US Secretary of State Blinken's recent statement that he would not rule out the possibility of military action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and his visit to Israel. Israel has sufficient motivation to launch such an attack against Iran in order to impede the negotiation process of the Iran nuclear deal and to curb the development of Iran's nuclear weapons and defence industry. After Netanyahu regained power in Israel late last year, Israel's stance towards Iran has hardened.

Currently, Iran is facing increasing external pressure, which has a lot to do with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Previously, some Western countries considered the Iran nuclear deal negotiations as an effective way to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the focus of Western attention changed from stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons to dealing with Russia, which to a certain extent gave room for de-escalation of the Iranian nuclear issue. However, Iran's sale of weapons such as drones to Russia, which have been used in the battlefield in Ukraine, has put Iran squarely on the opposite side of the West. Therefore, putting strong pressure on Iran to undermine its willingness and ability to support Russia becomes an important option for the West.

Following this round of attacks, Iran is likely to respond with some retaliation. However, given Iran's limited physical losses from the attack and the disparity in military power compared to the US and Israel, retaliation is likely to take the form of thwarted espionage activities rather than a larger military retaliation. Even so, the impact of this round of attacks on the regional situation should not be underestimated.

Since April 2021, the parties to the Iran nuclear deal have held intermittent rounds of negotiations, with several claims of progress. After that, the negotiations began to stall. This round of attacks may stir up anti-American sentiment in Iran and worsen relations with the West. The resumption of negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal will be even more difficult in the face of US assertiveness and Israeli pushback.

The situation in the Middle East has become increasingly tense. After this round of attacks, the pressure on Iran has become more pronounced and tensions with Israel and Arab countries may increase. The US push to build a system of allies against Iran in the Middle East will further pit the regional camps against each other. In addition, Iran's high-profile support for Palestine has also added variability to the regional situation. In this context, the struggle between Middle East countries over ideology and regional dominance will continue, and the process of moving from chaos to governance in the Middle East will be long and difficult.

Source: PLA Daily

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author or the interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institute)