On 31 January 2023, Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University gave an interview to Jiefang Daily on the attack on the Iranian military factory and the situation in the Middle East (see Jiefang Daily, 31 January 2023, page 4), the full text of which is as follows.
Who was behind the attack on the Iranian military factory?
The sudden sound of explosions and fire once again shattered the quiet night in Iran. Late at night on 28th local time, a workshop of an arsenal in the central Iranian city of Isfahan was attacked by a drone. The Iranian Defence Ministry later said that Iran had successfully thwarted the attack. Several foreign media quoted US officials as saying that the attack was carried out by the Israeli intelligence agency ‘Mossad’ and that the US was not involved. Is Israel really behind the attack? How will Iran respond? What will be the impact of the attack on the regional situation and US-Iran relations?
The location of the attack is very sensitive
The Iranian Defense Ministry said in a statement on 29th that Iran had successfully thwarted a drone attack on a workshop of an arms factory in the central city of Isfahan. The attack took place at 23:30 on the 28th. Video taken by people around the factory showed a loud explosion and fire at the time of the attack.
The Iranian Ministry of Defence previously said that the attack did not cause any casualties and only caused minor damage to the roof of the workshop. According to IRNA, the three drones that carried out the attack were all armed quadcopters carrying small bombs. One of the drones was shot down by an air defense system deployed at the arsenal, one exploded after being jammed by signals, and another was taken control of by security forces at the arsenal.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian called it a ‘cowardly attack’. He said, ‘Such attacks cannot affect the determination and intention of Iranian experts to carry out peaceful nuclear development.’
Public opinion considers the location of the attack to be very sensitive.
Firstly, there are conflicting opinions about the purpose of the arsenal that was attacked. According to Iranian media, the arsenal attacked was an ammunition factory. However, some Israeli media have claimed that the factory was also used to manufacture drones, but this claim has not been confirmed.
Secondly, the city of Isfahan, where the attack took place, is also home to a number of military facilities and nuclear research sites, and is believed to be a major centre for the production and development of Iranian missiles, which are used to assemble Iran's Shahab medium-range missiles, which have a range that covers the entire territory of Israel.
The Wall Street Journal noted that the arsenal is adjacent to a site belonging to the Iranian Aerospace Research Centre, which was previously sanctioned by the United States for its ballistic missile programme.
Isfahan province, where the city is located, also houses a large airbase and several nuclear facilities, including Iran's largest uranium enrichment facility, the Natanz nuclear facility.
In recent years, Iran's nuclear facilities and defence and security facilities, including the Natanz nuclear facility, have been repeatedly sabotaged and attacked by external forces.
US officials designate Israel
Following the attack on the arsenal, many parties have pointed the finger at Israel.
The Iranian side has said it has launched an investigation, but has not indicated who initiated the attack for now.
However, Iranian MP Hossein Mirzaei ‘strongly suspects’ that Israel was behind the attack. Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University with close ties to the Iranian government, also named Israel as the mastermind in social media.
A number of foreign media quoted US government officials and sources familiar with the matter as saying that Israel launched the attack without US involvement.
A spokesman for the Israeli military declined to comment on this. The public opinion points out that Israel has repeatedly said that if diplomacy fails to curb Iran's nuclear power and missile program, Israel will carry out a strike against Iran.
However, some Arab media have also claimed that US aircraft were involved in the attack.
The attack coincided with US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Israel. The Wall Street Journal also claims that Israeli and US officials are seeking to find new ways to curb Iran's nuclear and military ambitions.
Who is really behind this?
According to Liu Zhongmin, vice president of the Middle East Society of China and professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai Foreign Studies University, in recent years, Israel has usually neither admitted nor denied either the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists or the attacks on infrastructure and nuclear facilities. However, based on past history and some Israeli media reports, it is likely that the attack was carried out by Israel. Through the attack, Israel may be attempting to further undermine the US return to the Iranian nuclear deal, prevent an improvement in US-Iranian relations, and lock the US firmly in opposition to Iran.
Sun Degang, a researcher and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, said that it is still difficult to determine who is behind the attack, but the influence of the US in it is undeniable.
Last year, when US President Joe Biden visited Israel, he proposed that the US, Israel and some Arab countries set up a Middle East Air Defense Alliance against Iran. At that time, the United States and Israel also proposed a new plan to push the front line of containment of Iran from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen to Iranian territory. In addition, from the end of last year to the present, three senior US officials - Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Sullivan, CIA Director Burns and Secretary of State Blinken - have visited Israel with the deep-seated goal of building a major anti-Iranian alliance.
Over the past year or so, there have been a number of unexplained fires and attacks in Iran. The common background of these incidents is that the anti-Iran alliance wants to push the front into Iranian territory and create havoc and chaos inside Iran. Sun Degang said.
After the attacks, how will Iran respond?
According to Sun Degang, Iran is afraid that it will still need some time to investigate who exactly is behind the attack. Judging from past responses, once the US or Israel is identified as the culprit, Iran is likely to use armed Shiite militias to carry out retaliatory strikes against Israeli and US military facilities in places like Iraq.
This is not the first time in recent years that Iran has suffered such a defeat. Each time Iran has made high-profile declarations to strike back, but not by many means. Liu Zhongmin said that, in general, Iran is still at a disadvantage compared to Israel in terms of power and technology, and is subject to US suppression and international isolation, so there are not many ways to hurt Israel. It is expected that the Iranian side may find remedies by striking the Israeli and Western spy systems at home, or through regional proxies against the US military presence in the Middle East.
Regional situation may worsen
Analysts believe that under the influence of multiple variables, the conflict between Iran and Israel will further intensify in the future.
Firstly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formed the most right-wing government in the history of Israel after regaining power in December last year, and will take tougher measures against Iran.
Secondly, there have been a series of violent incidents in the Palestinian-Israeli region recently, resulting in many deaths and escalating tensions between the two countries. Sun Degang pointed out that the Iranian side has expressed strong support for Palestine, in order to prevent Iran from using the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to divert attention, anti-Iranian groups are likely to increase the damage to Iran.
In addition, the US-Iranian conflict is also intensifying in the context of the Ukraine crisis.
Earlier, the West and Kiev accused Russia of using Iranian-made drones on the battlefield in Ukraine. Although Iran has repeatedly denied this, it admitted that it had delivered drones to Russia before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Liu Zhongmin said, on the one hand, the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal has become more remote. Although the Biden administration had once promoted the Iranian nuclear negotiations after taking office, the resumption of the Iranian nuclear deal is becoming more and more remote under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis, the opposition of domestic forces in the United States and the continuous pull of Israel. In addition, the US's regional push to build a Middle East alliance system against Iran has kept US-Iran relations on a downward spiral, bringing Iran further closer to Russia.
Sun Degang also believes that Iran has clearly sided with Russia by providing it with drones. In this context, it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. The recent frequent visits of senior US officials to Israel have in fact reverted to military containment of Iran rather than negotiations as the primary objective. It is expected that the US, Israel and some Arab countries will seize the opportunity of domestic unrest in Iran to create chaos in Iran, such as drone attacks, to prevent it from providing political and military support to Russia.
On a regional level, the attack also reflects signs of a deteriorating situation in the Middle East.
Between 2021 and 2022, the situation in the Middle East will ease, with Iran, Turkey and Israel each showing signs of a thaw in their relations with Arab countries. But analysts say the détente could take a sharp turn for the worse this year.
Sun Degang said, in the context of the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Israel's relations with the Arab countries to improve the momentum of fear will be interrupted. Iran is also facing challenges in its relations with Arab countries, and the Iranian side believes that Saudi Arabia, Israel and other countries are fanning the flames behind the massive demonstrations that took place in the country last year.
As the confrontation between Israel and Iran intensifies, the de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East may be reversed this year. Liu Zhongmin said that in the past two years, the relationship between Israel and Iran has never loosened, and both sides are battling it out in terms of public opinion, security and even dark war. Recently, Iran's high-profile attitude on the Palestinian-Israeli issue and the condemnation of Israel by Arab countries that have de-escalated relations with Israel could lead to a spiral of escalating tensions.
Source: Jiefang Daily
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author or the interviewee and do not represent the position of this research institution)
