On 29 January 2023, Professor Ding Long of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University gave an interview to the Liberation Daily on Blinken's visit to the Middle East and the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli situation (see Jiefang Daily, 29 January 2023, page 4), the full text of which is as follows.

Can Blinken's Middle East visit cool down the Palestinian-Israeli situation?

Amidst the gunfire between the Palestinians and Israelis, US Secretary of State John Blinken will start his first Middle East trip so far this year from January 29, visiting Egypt, Israel and Palestine.

He is the third senior official from the Biden administration to visit the Middle East in the past month.

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Three days visit multiple objectives

According to the itinerary released by the US State Department, Blinken will first arrive in Cairo, Egypt on the 29th for talks with Egyptian President Sisi and other senior officials. Then on the 30th and 31st, he will travel to Jerusalem and Ramallah to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas.

The State Department said the three-day visit will discuss a range of global and regional priorities, including the Ukraine crisis, Iran and Palestinian-Israeli relations.

The U.S. media said Blinken had been planning the visit for weeks. Recently, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has resumed, causing casualties. This means that the situation in Palestine and Israel will dominate Blinken's trip, but also for the trip overshadowed, so that the visit becomes more difficult and tricky.

Analysts believe that Blinken's decision to visit the Middle East at this time is based on several considerations.

One is to reconcile Palestinian-Israeli relations and ease tensions.

The first of these is a visit to the city of Jenin in the northern West Bank, where clashes broke out between Israeli forces and the Palestinians, resulting in the deaths of at least nine Palestinians. According to the Associated Press, it was the deadliest single operation by Israeli forces in the West Bank in more than 20 years.

In the aftermath, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) returned the favour by firing several rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel. The Israeli army retaliated by launching warplanes to bomb Hamas military targets in the Gaza Strip. The PA also announced its decision to suspend security coordination with the Israeli side.

On the 27th, a shooting incident near a synagogue in a Jewish settlement in East Jerusalem resulted in a number of casualties.

Analysts say the conflict has been intensifying since Israel launched night raids in various parts of the West Bank last spring. Netanyahu returned to power last December and has hardened his stance on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, prompting further escalation of the conflict. At least 30 Palestinians have been killed in the conflict so far this year, and tensions are rising, causing concern on the US side. It is worth noting that, in addition to Blinken's visit to the Palestinian-Israeli region, US Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Sullivan and CIA Director Burns also visited the region recently. Burns also visited Egypt.

Secondly, it continues to butt heads with the most right-wing government in Israeli history.

Foreign media commentary says that there has been tension between Netanyahu and the US Democratic Party. The differences between Biden and Netanyahu were accentuated at the end of last year when the most right-wing government in Israel's history emerged. However, given the US need for Israeli support on issues such as the Ukraine crisis, Biden remains hopeful that US-Israeli relations will get off to a good start under the new Netanyahu government.

Li Shaoxian, director of the China Institute for Arab States at Ningxia University, pointed out that one of the objectives of the intensive visits to Israel by three senior US officials, from Sullivan and Burns to Blinken, is to achieve a docking with the new Netanyahu government. In addition, Netanyahu may visit the United States next month, the recent intensive visits of senior U.S. officials to Israel is also for the bilateral talks between the two leaders to play a pre-stop, Blinken's trip is no exception.

Thirdly, to expand the Abrahamic Agreement and build a Middle East alliance system against Iran.

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, pointed out that the deeper objective of Blinken's visit to Egypt and Palestine and Israel is to expand the Abrahamic Agreement and promote more Arab countries to improve relations with Israel and normalize relations.

This was a major part of Sullivan's mission on his earlier visit to Israel.

The fundamental aim of the US side is to form a cross-ethnic alliance of Jews and Arabs to create a system of US allies in the Middle East to confront Iran. Dhillon said.

Specifically, Blinken may consult with the Israeli side on the upcoming Negev Forum. The forum was approved by the Israeli cabinet to promote cooperation between Israel and Arab countries.

Li Shaoxian added that the US is also anxious to coordinate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because it is not conducive to the expansion process of the Abrahamic Agreement.

Mediating the conflict is difficult

Time is tight and the task is heavy, and it is by no means easy for Blinken to achieve his goals one by one.

First of all, to the Palestinian-Israeli situation to cool down, Brinken can not be a peacemaker.

The State Department said that during his visit to Palestine and Israel, Blinken will emphasize the urgent need for both sides to take measures to ease tensions and end the cycle of violence.

Blinken will also stress the importance of maintaining the historical status quo for the Al-Aqsa Mosque. This is in response to the Israeli National Security Minister's comments this month about entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, a move seen by Palestinians and Arabs as a provocation and an increase in tensions.

Li Shaoxian said, for Blinken, this visit to catch up with the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, is an opportunity to mediate, but mediation is difficult. The reason is that on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, the Biden administration and the new Netanyahu government are clearly divided. The United States advocates a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli problem, but the new Israeli government has taken a hard line, declaring that the first priority is the expansion of settlements in the West Bank, and even threatening to annex the West Bank to Israel.

Blinken's visit may have been intended to draw red lines for Israel, for example on the issue of settlements, but I'm afraid it won't sway Israel. For reasons of regime stability, Netanyahu will hardly be able to suppress the ultra-nationalist forces within the coalition.

In Ding Long's view, the US does not have the ability to mediate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The reasons for this are: for one thing, the US position is unjust, favouring Israel over Palestine, and its words are inconsistent with its actions. Secondly, the US has continued its strategic contraction in the Middle East and is reluctant to take on more responsibilities, and has paid limited attention to the Palestinian-Israeli issue.

The Biden administration has made a number of promises since taking office, including promoting peace between Israel and Palestine, implementing the two-state solution, reopening the US consulate in Jerusalem and preventing the expansion of Israeli settlements, but none of them have been fulfilled so far. Blinken's mediation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is largely just posturing, and his emphasis on 'maintaining the historical status quo' is just to appease the Palestinians. Ding Long said.

According to Li Shaoxian and Ding Long, the easing of the Palestinian-Israeli situation also needs to draw on the strength of regional countries such as Egypt.

Egypt, for example, which currently has good relations with Israel and also maintains pragmatic relations with Hamas, is seen by the US side as being able to play an important role. An important purpose of Blinken's visit to Egypt is to get Cairo's assistance in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. Al Jazeera believes that beyond this, there is nothing new on the agenda for Blinken's trip to Cairo.

However, Dhillon pointed out that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be resolved in a single visit. Even if the crisis is put to rest for now, in the long run the low-intensity conflict between the two sides will continue.

The Middle East is not in a position to be reorganized?

Secondly, rationalising US-Israeli relations is easier said than done.

The State Department said that Blinken's visit to Israel will discuss long-term US support for Israel's security, especially against the threat from Iran.

In Li Shaoxian's judgment, relations between the Biden administration and the new Netanyahu government will not be smooth. The key to the conflict is not Netanyahu's own differences with Biden, but the ultra-nationalist character of this new Israeli government, which has leaned sharply to the right, and will make policy coordination between the two sides more difficult.

In addition to the Palestinian-Israeli issue is difficult to coordinate, in the Iranian nuclear issue, the Ukrainian crisis, the two sides also need to be cautious to the table.

The two sides also need to be cautiously on the table on the Iranian nuclear issue, said Li Shaoxian. Because Israel has been plotting to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, the United States is concerned that once the Israeli side will invoke Iranian counter-attack, which will involve the United States.

With regard to the Ukraine crisis, US media said the US would continue to seek Israeli support for Ukraine, but at the same time avoid criticism of Israel's posture in the Ukraine crisis.

Mindful of Russian feelings and Russian influence in the Middle East, Israel has so far only provided medical and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but has avoided sending deadly military equipment to Kiev.

However, analysts believe that the cornerstone of the US-Israeli alliance remains unbreakable. After all, consensus outweighs differences, and whether Republicans or Democrats are in power, the U.S.-Israeli strategic relationship is unshakeable and will not be disturbed by outside factors. The company's main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers.

Once again, for Israel to expand the circle of friends and create a major anti-Iranian coalition is not short of challenges.

Analysts point out that, due to the Palestinian issue, the Arab-Israeli conflict is difficult to resolve, including Saudi Arabia, most Arab countries, including Israel to achieve normalized relations. Moreover, the internal ecology of the Middle East is also continuing to change. For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been in contact and have conducted several rounds of negotiations. Iran's foreign minister recently said that he would continue dialogue with Saudi Arabia on reaching an agreement to normalise relations.

In response to Sullivan's previous visit to Israel to try to facilitate the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Saudi side responded that it would never normalise relations with Israel in the absence of the two-state solution. Normalisation.

The U.S. seems to have more than enough energy for Middle East affairs, but Li Shaoxian reminded that three senior U.S. officials have recently visited the Middle East in quick succession, indicating that the Biden administration is still interested in the Middle East and wants to make a difference. Against the backdrop of the Ukraine crisis and the shift of the US strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific, Biden fears that China, Russia and even Iran will fill the vacuum in the Middle East. Li Shaoxian said, but the United States has no intention to invest a lot of resources, so it can only make the old formula - set up Israel and other Arab countries, restructuring the Middle East power plate. Just how effective that will be remains to be seen.

Source: Jiefang Daily

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author or the interviewee and do not represent the position of this research institute)