On January 20, 2023, Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University gave an interview to Jiefang Daily on Turkey-US relations (see Jiefang Daily, January 20, 2023, page 11), the full text of which is as follows.

Turkey and U.S. Signal Rapprochement to Each Other

On January 18, Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu visited Washington and held talks with US Secretary of State Blinken. The newest addition to the list is a new one. The ‘belated visit’ by Turkey's top diplomat highlights the complex relationship between Turkey and the United States, according to analysis. Why has the Turkish-US relationship been so fractious and fractious in recent years? With this visit at the beginning of the year, is the relationship between the NATO allies expected to improve?

The Turkish side has a strong bargaining chip in hand

On the 18th, Çavuşoğlu held talks with Blinken in Washington. The visit was considered a ‘belated visit’ as the Biden administration did not extend a formal invitation to the Turkish foreign minister until almost two years after taking office.

According to a joint statement issued after the meeting, the foreign ministers' meeting was the fourth under the Turkish-US strategic mechanism. During the meeting, the two sides discussed strengthening the defence partnership, including the modernisation of Turkey's F-16 fighter jets.

The statement also said the two sides were committed to ‘strengthening NATO coordination and solidarity in the face of current threats and challenges’ and discussed the implementation of a memorandum signed by Finland, Sweden and Turkey to advance the ‘accession’ of Finland and Sweden.

The two sides also discussed the crisis in Ukraine, and the US expressed appreciation for Turkey's role in facilitating an agreement on the transport of agricultural products from Black Sea ports. In addition, the Syrian crisis, the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean and strengthening cooperation in the fight against terrorism were among the main topics.

According to public opinion, the US side is trying to ‘bridge differences’ as the main tone this time.

The US and Turkey are ‘close allies and partners’, Blinken said before the talks. This does not mean that the two countries do not have differences, ‘but we will resolve our differences in the spirit of allies and partners’.

For its part, Turkey's request for U.S. F-16s was a key topic of the visit.

Çavuşoğlu urged the Biden administration to ‘act decisively’ to convince the US Congress to approve the relevant military purchase plan totaling about $20 billion.

The State Department submitted an informal notice to the House and Senate committees overseeing arms sales on the 12th, informing the Biden administration that it was preparing to sell 40 F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, hoping Congress would ‘give the green light’.

In fact, Turkey's request for US fighter jets has gone through several twists and turns and has become the focus of conflict between the two countries.

Turkey has been a member of the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program since 2002 and has invested more than a billion dollars in the program. However, in 2017, Turkey signed an agreement with Russia to purchase the S-400 air defense missile system, despite opposition from the US and NATO.

The U.S., unsuccessful in its efforts to soften the deal, ‘kicked’ Turkey out of the F-35 program in 2020 and refused to sell the aircraft to Turkey, triggering a further deterioration in relations between the two countries. But in October 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the US had raised the possibility of selling F-16s to Turkey. The Turkish side is seeking to buy 40 F-16s and 80 ‘upgrade kits’ to improve its existing fighter aircraft of the same type.

It is believed that the application of Sweden and Finland to join NATO after the Ukraine crisis has also been used as a strong bargaining chip for Turkey to negotiate with the US and for the Biden administration to finalise the deal.

Possible US compromise

Will Turkey get what it wants after the Biden administration relents? In this regard, analysis suggests that the U.S. Congress will remain the next hurdle for Turkey to pass.

According to Reuters, there is still opposition in the US Congress, with some members of Congress expressing dissatisfaction with Turkey's human rights issues and Syria policy. More recently, they have pointed the finger at Turkey's obstruction of Finland and Sweden's accession to the treaty.

Turkey has recently released signals that Sweden and Finland have not met the conditions for NATO membership proposed by the Turkish side, and the prospect of the two countries joining the alliance is in doubt again. The company's main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers.

Turkish Defence Minister Akar said on 17 that Sweden and Finland had not fulfilled their commitments in accordance with the memorandum signed in June last year, and condemned the PKK demonstrations in the Swedish capital Stockholm last week.

Erdogan said on the 15th that Sweden and Finland must deport or extradite 130 terrorists to Turkey before the Turkish side would approve the two countries' application for NATO membership. Turkey's presidential spokesman Karim said that because Turkey is expected to hold general elections in May, parliament will be in recess before then, the two countries in June before the NATO summit to join the possibility is not high.

As a result, Turkish officials have warned that this could lead to a ‘dead end’ for both countries, as the US congressmen demanded that the US concerns be addressed first before discussing the F-16 arms sale.

However, analysts believe that despite the opposition expressed by some lawmakers, the US side may compromise in the long run.

Liu Zhongmin, vice president of the Middle East Society of China and professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, believes that, on the whole, whether at the level of strategic security or specific interests, it is in the overall interest of the United States to move forward with the sale of F-16s to Turkey.

On the one hand, against the backdrop of a prolonged crisis in Ukraine, Turkey's geopolitical role has strengthened, not only in mediating the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also in relation to the US strategy to expand NATO. On the other hand, with Turkey and other US allies in the Middle East gaining strategic autonomy, the days of the US ‘dictating’ are over. The US is also expected to change its strategic judgement in order to prevent Turkey from moving further and further away from the West.

Will Turkish-US relations turn around?

In recent years, Turkish-US relations have been at odds, not only with each other, but also with each other.

Why is this so? Guo Changgang, director of the Centre for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University and director of the Institute of History at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, points out that there are three main sticking points in Turkish-US relations.

One is Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-missile system, which has led to US sanctions. Turkey wants to have a strong military force and pursue strategic autonomy, but the US and NATO are trying to contain it so that it does not grow out of control and cause conflicts between the two sides.

The second is the Kurdish issue. Turkey regards the PKK and the Syrian Kurdish armed People's Protection Units (YPG) as terrorist organisations and has taken several cross-border actions against them, but the US is fighting the Islamic State in Syria with the PKK branch. Turkey believes that the US and other Western countries are actually supporting what it considers to be a terrorist organisation.

In July 2016, following the attempted military coup in Turkey, the Erdogan government accused Gülen, a religious figure living in the US, and his supporters of masterminding the coup and demanded his extradition to Turkey, but the US refused.

Liu Zhongmin also believes that Turkey and the US have drifted apart since the attempted coup in Turkey in 2016. On the values level, Erdogan has strengthened control at the domestic social and political levels and expanded his presidential powers, which has intensified the differences between Turkey and the West, which used to be regarded as a ‘beacon of democracy’ in the Middle East; on the security level, Turkey has come closer to Russia; on regional issues, Turkey and the US have disagreed on the Syrian issue; on the diplomatic level, Turkey has lost confidence in joining the EU. Turkey, which has gradually lost its confidence in joining the EU, has also ceased to care and has repeatedly sent strong signals of discontent to the US and Europe.

Now, will the Turkish Foreign Minister's visit bring about a turnaround in relations between the two countries?

Liu Zhongmin believes that, on the whole, Turkey's relations with the West are not so much in conflict as they are in complete disarray, and that this situation is expected to continue. Turkey will continue to maintain a balance between Russia and the West, while Turkey and the US will continue to play with their interests and maintain a relationship of ‘mutual need and struggle’. In addition, this year is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish state, and in May Turkey will hold a general election, so I am afraid that the intensification of the conflict with the West is not what Turkey wants.

Guo Changgang, on the other hand, believes that the US-Turkey relationship is expected to ease after this visit.

From the US side, the joint statement stresses the importance of the two countries as NATO allies, a change from the past rhetoric in the US that Turkey should be ‘kicked out of NATO’, which could be seen as an important signal that the US is trying to ease relations with Turkey.

For Turkey, maintaining positive Turkish-US relations ahead of the May elections would also be a ‘plus’ for Erdogan. ‘In fact, any diplomatic moves Turkey has made in the last year or so have been in preparation for the elections,’ said Guo Changgang. ‘It is expected that after the election, if Erdogan is re-elected, he will focus on solving internal problems rather than attracting international attention.’

However, Guo Changgang also pointed out that while Turkey will maintain a dynamic and balanced relationship with the US, the structural contradictions between the two sides will remain difficult to resolve. In recent years, Turkey has formed a coordination mechanism with Russia and Iran on Syria under the framework of the Astana process, repaired relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt and other regional countries, and gradually resolved peripheral issues. In the future, it is expected that Turkey will gradually seek a diplomatic balance and pursue strategic autonomy, unwilling to be subject to the US or NATO any longer. If the US exerts too much pressure on Turkey, it will make Turkey take even greater strides to seek other diplomatic relations.

Source: Jiefang Daily

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author or the interviewee and do not represent the position of this research institution)