On 13 January 2023, Niu Song, a researcher of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, published an opinion article in China Defense News, ‘The situation in the Middle East region is generally stable and positive’ (see China Defense News, 13 January 2023, page 4), which reads as follows.
The situation in the Middle East region is generally stable and improving
The development trend of the situation in the Middle East region is closely related to the evolution of the complex and diversified ecology of international relations in the region, the intensity of the involvement of extraterritorial powers, and the radiation effect generated by international hotspot issues. Since 2020, the Middle East has taken on a new shape due to a combination of internal and external factors, among which the birth of the Abrahamic Agreement (a historic peace agreement signed by Israel, the UAE and Bahrain at the US White House on 15 September 2020, which has been described as changing the Middle East landscape) and the continued spread of the New Crown epidemic have played a more direct and crucial role. Compared to 2022, the situation in the Middle East in 2023 will be generally stable to positive and partially languishing, with attention focused on four main aspects.
The Arab Spring since 2010 and the Qatar diplomatic crisis in 2017 have led to an intensification of intra-Arab confrontation. In November 2022, Qatar took advantage of its home diplomacy and used the opening ceremony of the World Cup to launch successful ‘football diplomacy’, further repairing relations with the countries concerned. In addition, as the situation in Syria becomes more stable, the pace of reconciliation between other Arab countries and Syria has accelerated. As a result, in 2023, Arab countries will increase their efforts to heal the national emotional rift caused by issues such as the Muslim Brotherhood, and will take a cautious and positive approach to the return of Syria to the League of Arab States.
Secondly, the pace of economic recovery in the Middle East will accelerate significantly, with the Dubai Expo and the Qatar World Cup coming to an end in 2022, reflecting the idea that the Middle Eastern countries will boost their economies by hosting major international conventions and events. In 2023, Middle Eastern countries, especially the major oil and gas powers, will assert their dominant position on fossil energy issues, maximise political pressure from outside countries, and make every effort to develop green energy and tourism economies. The overall easing of the situation in the Middle East will also create more opportunities for regional countries to promote economic development and cooperation.
At the end of 2022, Netanyahu will become Prime Minister of Israel for the third time. This has effectively set the tone for 2023. The new Israeli Minister of National Security and leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, Itamar Ben-Gevir, entered the Temple Mount in Jerusalem's Old City (known to Muslims as ‘Haram al-Sharif’) at the start of the new year 2023. ‘Haram al-Sharif’), prompting condemnation from several countries, including Palestine. In addition, in 2023 Israel will continue the general layout of the Abrahamic Agreement to develop its relations with Afghanistan and seek to deepen its relations with Saudi Arabia.
Finally, the Iranian nuclear negotiations will remain a mixture of difficulties and opportunities. The Biden administration has moderated its attitude towards Iran since taking office. The U.S. has not been willing to address the issue, although negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on the nuclear issue have been intermittent, and since September 2022 the process has been virtually stalled. The Iranian foreign ministry has said it is ready to complete the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal, but whether a deal can be reached depends on the will of the West.
Source: China Defense News
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author or interviewees and do not represent the position of this research institute)
