On December 27, 2023, Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University was interviewed by Global Times on the spillover escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (see Global Times December 28, 2023, page 3)，the full text of which is below:
Prolonged Gaza war leads to growing risks of wider regional conflict
Chinese experts raised concerns on Wednesday about the growing risks of a wider conflict in the Middle East, as Israel's military chief warned that its war on Hamas will likely last for months. Experts said that it is hard to predict when the war will end, but that a prolonged war will be increasingly detrimental to Israel.
Israel's Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told reporters in a televised statement on Tuesday from the Gaza border that the war would go on for many months, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other leaders vowing to continue fighting, despite growing international pressure to wind down the battle and calls at home for a deal to free hostages held in Gaza, the military appeared poised for a newly intensified push into the central and southern parts of the Strip, the Times of Israel said.
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also told Knesset lawmakers on Tuesday that Israel would punish Hamas over its brutal October 7 attack, whether it takes months or years.
However, Israeli President Isaac Herzog said Israel is willing to agree to a new temporary truce with Hamas in Gaza to secure the release of more captives held by the Palestinian group, Al Jazeera reported on December 19.
The information coming from Israel is still somewhat chaotic, but it can be broadly divided into two aspects. On one hand, there are some efforts in response to international pressure and humanitarian concerns, including humanitarian aid and negotiations for a cease-fire and the exchange of hostages. On the other hand, there is a strong military stance, indicating a determination to continue the conflict, Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
Still, it may be challenging to predict the end of the Israel-Palestine conflict, Liu noted. While the prolonged conflict is increasingly detrimental to Israel, Israel maintained a strong stance to convey its determination, especially to Hamas.
Gallant also warned on Tuesday of a growing risk of a regional conflict in the Middle East as tensions with Iran increase, the Financial Times reported.
He told a parliamentary committee that Israel was being attacked in a multi-arena war from seven areas, which he identified as Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran.
The US said on Tuesday that it had shot down 12 attack drones and five missiles launched by the Houthi militia in Yemen, as the Israeli military said a fighter jet successfully shot down a hostile aerial target, believed to be a drone launched at Israel from Yemen over the Red Sea, the Times of Israel reported.
Amid the escalating conflict in the region, Houthi forces also launched an attack on a container ship passing through the Red Sea on Tuesday, which has led several vessels to steer clear of the area, according to media reports.
Since late December, we have witnessed new developments in the Israel-Palestine situation. Israel has conducted more precise special operations when striking Hamas in the Gaza Strip, resulting in a narrower range of attacks compared to the indiscriminate bombardment in northern Gaza, Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
We can see that the conflicts in the Middle East have evolved, with Arab nations and Turkey adopting a generally neutral or detached stance. Therefore, Iran has gradually become the central focus of the conflicts, he said.
Against this backdrop, the US and Israel are likely to redirect their conflicts. As these conflicts escalate, Israel and the US will seek to portray Iran and its proxies as the primary threat in the Middle East, Sun noted.
Some experts believe that the US has become increasingly isolated in its Middle East policy, and especially when it comes to the US-led Red Sea coalition, as regional countries are unwilling to show their support publicly.
The expansion of the Red Sea crisis is due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the prolonged military action in Gaza, as well as the support of the US, which is the fundamental cause of the issue, Liu said.
Source: Global Times
(The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author or the interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institution)
