On May 6, 2024, Professor Liu Zhongmin of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University was interviewed by Global Times on Israel's negotiations with Hamas, the full text of which is below:
US again fails to bring cease-fire to Gaza, 'more civilian casualties unavoidable if Israel attacks Rafah'
The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is set to continue, as Israel warned Palestinians to evacuate from Rafah and the Israeli military prepared for an attack on the southern city on Palestine's border with Egypt. Experts said on Monday this will surely cause large numbers of civilian casualties, and the latest development in the situation proves that the US-dominated mediation has failed once again.
Although analysts doubted that Israel can realize the goal of eradicating Hamas, they said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet would like to see the war extended, until they see Donald Trump winning the US presidential election at the end of this year. They added that this is the only chance for the Netanyahu administration to stay in power, and unfortunately, more civilians in Gaza will die, and the US will just refuse all demands to stop military aid to Israel.
As long as the conflict continues, the pro-Palestine protests in universities in the US and many other major Western countries will continue, and this will surely damage the image of the Joe Biden administration, as all of this proves that Biden is refusing to try his best to stop Netanyahu, experts said. They noted that the pro-Palestine protesters are mostly Democratic voters, and after a series of conflicts with US police, many of them might realize that political elites in the Democratic Party are just using them and failing to deliver what they are asking for. If they don't vote for Biden, Trump will have a chance to win, and this is exactly what Netanyahu is waiting for, they said.
Israel's military has issued a call for residents in eastern Rafah to evacuate immediately, one day after the country's defense minister told troops inside Gaza to expect intense action in Rafah in the near future, CNN reported on Monday.
A CNN stringer in east Rafah said that people were terrified and in a state of panic after the evacuation order from the Israeli military. Video footage showed people in the city packing cars and donkey-drawn carts with belongings.
Earlier, a Hamas delegation was in Cairo on Saturday as Egyptian state media reported noticeable progress in cease-fire talks for Gaza, but Israel did not send a delegation, the AP reported.
The bloodshed continued on Sunday as three Israeli soldiers were killed in a rocket attack claimed by Hamas' armed wing near Rafah, where Palestinian health officials said at least 19 people were killed by Israeli fire on the same day, Reuters reported.
Netanyahu on Sunday doubled down on his rejection of Hamas' demand for an end to Israel's war against it in exchange for freeing the hostages it holds, saying that such a move would keep Hamas in power in Gaza and pose a threat to Israel, the Times of Israel reported on Sunday.
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times on Monday that the main difficulty facing cease-fire talks is that Israel wants to eradicate Hamas after it releases the detained Israelis, while Hamas wants a sustainable cease-fire to ensure the group stays alive.
Another key reason behind the failure of the US mediation is that Washington is adopting a problematic stance: On the one hand, it wants to respond to both internal and external pressures by pushing Israel and Hamas toward a deal, on the other hand, the US will unconditionally provide military aid to Israel, and both of them want Hamas to be eradicated, Liu said.
Ma Xiaolin, dean of the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim at Zhejiang International Studies University, told the Global Times on Monday, Netanyahu understands that if he accepts the cease-fire, he and his cabinet will have to face consequences, as the goal that they promised of eradicating Hamas has not been realized, and this will be considered a failure in Israel, but the ground attack against Rafah will inevitably result in more civilian deaths.
No matter how many civilians are killed by Netanyahu and his army, the US will unconditionally defend Israel, despite Washington occasionally complaining about the ruthless behavior of Israeli military forces, experts said.
Although Israel will be heavily criticized if it launches a massive attack against Rafah, as long as the Biden administration refuses to stop military aid, Israel will be immune to criticism and condemnation, and will be able to do whatever it wants in Gaza, while the US, especially the Biden administration, will face the pressure and pay the price for Israel, experts noted.
Source: Global Times
(The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author or the interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institution)
