On November 14, 2024, Professor Liu Zhongmin at Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University gave an interview to Global Times on Israel-US Relations, which reads as follows:
Israel eyes Lebanon ceasefire as ‘gift’ to US, but potential deal is delicate: observer
Israel is rushing to advance a ceasefire deal in Lebanon with the aim of delivering an early foreign policy win to US President-elect Donald Trump, The Washington Post reported, but observers predict a scenario of fight and talk in the next two months. Even if the diplomatic gift is eventually sent, such a ceasefire would be delicate and temporary given the scale and complexity of the conflicts in the Middle East, they said.
The Washington Post, citing three current and former Israeli officials, reported on Wednesday that a close aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had discussed the proposal with Trump and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, at Mar-a-Lago.
Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's minister of strategic affairs, made Mar-a-Lago the first stop on his US tour Sunday before traveling to the White House to update Biden administration officials on the state of Lebanon talks, The Washington Post reported.
Trump has said he wants to bring an end to the wars in the Middle East, but he also told Netanyahu in a call last month to do what you have to do against Hezbollah and Hamas, according to The Washington Post.
Trump told Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during a phone call on November 8 - their first since 2017 - that he will work to end the war in Gaza, according to a statement from the Palestinian presidency and a Palestinian official briefed on the call, Axios reported.
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, told the Global Times on Thursday that Netanyahu has a motivation for making this kind of diplomatic gesture, considering the sound Israel-US ties in Trump's previous term.
Trump moved the US embassy to the city of Jerusalem in 2018 and recognized Israel's occupation of Syria's Golan Heights the following year, Newsweek reported.
Liu said Israel has been conducting talks with multiple parties, and by proposing a possible Lebanon ceasefire in a gesture of goodwill, the Netanyahu administration will seek a stronger US security commitment with regard to Iran in exchange.
Though a ceasefire in Lebanon direction is possible, Liu predicts the next two months will be fight and talk with scaled-down severity of strikes.
In parallel with Dermer's diplomatic blitz, the Israel Defense Forces are preparing for a second phase of their ground operation, according to an Israeli military official, in case talks fall apart, while in recent days, Israel's air force has pummeled Lebanon with strikes, Washington Post reported.
Since Israel's strategic objectives have yet to be met, Liu also pointed out that even if a ceasefire in Lebanon can be realized, regional conflicts have become so extensive and complicated that such a delicate deal can be torn apart easily given the low security trust in the region.
Source: Global Times
(The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author or the interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institution)
