Source：Foreign Affairs Review, No .6, 2024

Abstract: Since Turkey became a member of NATO over 70 years ago, the relationship between the two sides has been fluctuating amidst close cooperation and frequent discords, which poses a severe challenge to NATO's alliance management. According to neoclassical realism, the variability of Turkey's policy toward NATO is a product driven by both the pressure of the international system and the consensus of the domestic elites. Systemic pressure determines the space of Turkey's foreign policy choices toward NATO, and elite consensus affects the intensity of its policy choices. Systemic pressure is influenced by the structure of the international system, while elite consensus is influenced by leaders, party politics and the military. The different combination of the two factors generates Turkey's diverse policies toward NATO. When the systemic pressure is high and the elite consensus is consistent, Turkey tends to adopt a follower policy; when the systemic pressure is high and the elite consensus is inconsistent, Turkey tends to adopt a policy of compromise; when the systemic pressure is low and the elite consensus is inconsistent, Turkey tends to adopt a confrontational policy; when the systemic pressure is low and elite consensus is consistent, Turkey tends to adopt a speculative policy. The deployment of Jupiter missiles, the response to the Cyprus crisis, the handling of the Kurdish issue and the deployment of “S400” missiles constitute typical cases that verify Turkey's follower, compromising, confrontational or speculative policy towards NATO. Therefore, against the backdrop of drastic changes in international politics and profound adjustments in Turkey's domestic politics, Turkey's policies towards NATO will continue to vary on different issues.

Keywords: Turkey, NATO, foreign policy, systemic pressure, elite consensus, alliance management