On May 13, 2025, Prof. Ding Long of the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University published an opinion piece in Global Times, “The US still views the rapidly changing Middle East through an old lens”, the full text is as follows:
The US still views the rapidly changing Middle East through an old lens
US President Donald Trump began his first major foreign trip since returning to the White House by traveling to the Middle East on Tuesday. The last time he visited the region, eight years ago, he only went to Saudi Arabia. However, this time he will visit three oil-rich countries: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
From a geopolitical perspective, these three countries are regarded by the US as key pieces in its chess game in the region. This visit underscores the US' intention to use these three countries as a fulcrum to reintegrate its Middle East allies and build a US-led Middle East alliance system aimed at containing Iran, excluding China and Russia, and consolidating US hegemony in the region.
Economic interests are another important consideration. Saudi Arabia has promised to invest $600 billion in the US, but the US administration is aiming for $1 trillion. The UAE has announced that it would invest $1.4 trillion in the US over the next 10 years. The US attempts to leverage the Gulf countries to bolster its economy while simultaneously consolidating its financial hegemony based on the dollar-denominated oil prices.
However, it's important to note that there are inherent flaws in US Middle East policy, which have become increasingly evident in light of new political and economic realities in the region.
The Gulf countries are unwilling to dance to the tune of the US. With the implementation of national transformation strategies, the strategic autonomy and confidence of countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE have increased significantly. These nations are focusing on domestic economic development and transformation, which necessitates a peaceful external environment. They are not keen on geopolitical confrontation, and no longer believe in the security guarantees provided by the US.
Under China's mediation, Saudi Arabia and Iran have achieved a historic reconciliation, and the confrontation between the various camps in the Middle East has been greatly eased. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have stepped onto the international stage, frequently mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as hosting US-Russia dialogues. This demonstrates that the regional and international influence of the Gulf countries has significantly evolved and is no longer what it once was. However, the US still views the rapidly changing Middle East through an old lens. Its attempts to re-ignite the camp confrontation are unpopular.
The US attempts to influence the Gulf countries by emphasizing the honor of the first foreign trip from a US president, seeking to bolster its political achievements through huge investment promises from these countries. This approach overlooks the complexity and uncertainty of economic cooperation and underestimates the political wisdom and determination of the Gulf countries. Washington's loosening coal mining restrictions as part of efforts aimed at unleashing US energy have seriously lowered international oil prices, undermined the core interests of the Gulf countries, and are likely to trigger fierce competition between them and the US in the energy field.
Currently, Middle Eastern countries are in a critical period of economic transformation, with considerable work to be done and funding needed across various sectors. Their aspirations for large-scale investments in the US may prove to be illusory. Such significant investments require a multitude of viable projects, and ultimately, the implementation of these investments may be challenging. Of course, while this visit may improve US relations with its Arab allies to a certain extent, various factors suggest that the outcomes are likely to fall short of the geopolitical ambitions of the US.
Source: Global Times
(The views expressed in this article are the personal views of the author or the interviewee, and do not represent the position of this research institution)
